The International Labour Organization (ILO) warned on Monday that the ongoing Middle East conflict is beginning to undermine wages, jobs, and working conditions far beyond the region itself.
Image: Business Recorder
In a new report, the UN labour agency said rising energy prices, transport disruptions, supply chain pressures, weaker tourism activity, and reduced migrant labour demand were placing increasing strain on global economies.
The ILO warned that if oil prices remain significantly elevated due to the conflict, labour markets could face serious long-term consequences in 2026 and 2027.
According to the report, a sustained increase in oil prices to around 50 percent above pre-conflict levels could reduce global working hours by 0.5 percent in 2026 and 1.1 percent in 2027.
The agency estimated that the decline would be equivalent to the loss of approximately 14 million full-time jobs in 2026 and 43 million jobs in 2027.
Global unemployment is also projected to rise, while real labour incomes could fall by 1.1 percent this year and by 3 percent next year.
The ILO said the Middle East, Gulf states, and Asia-Pacific region were expected to face the strongest impact, with migrant workers particularly vulnerable.
The report noted that around 40 percent of employment in Arab states is concentrated in sectors highly exposed to economic shocks, including construction, manufacturing, transport, trade, and hospitality.
The agency further warned that reduced demand for workers from South and Southeast Asia in Gulf countries could significantly affect remittance flows relied upon by millions of families.
ILO chief economist Sangheon Lee described the crisis as a “slow-moving and potentially long-lasting shock” that could reshape global labour markets beyond the immediate conflict zone.
